A crise econômica e seus efeitos na construção civil

por | jun 8, 2018 | Economia, Gestão financeira | 233 Comentários

Após um biênio marcado por seguidos períodos de recessão, o PIB brasileiro cresceu 1% em 2017 e caminha para uma expansão maior deste ano em diante. Segundo o IBGE, o encolhimento do produto interno brasileiro totalizou uma baixa de 7,4% entre 2015 e 2016. Este ano positivo sinaliza uma recuperação gradativa, mas constante, até 2020.

Apesar de isso implicar que o país só crescerá daqui a seis anos, é uma excelente notícia para a construção civil. O setor foi o que mais retraiu durante o período de instabilidade, chegando ao patamar de 2009, quando o Brasil sofria com a crise global que teve início no ano anterior.

Segundo o IBGE, a atividade encolheu cerca de 6% relativo ao PIB desde abril/2014, número que acompanha o aumento do desemprego formal no período.

No entanto, pesquisas mensais realizadas pela Fundação Getúlio Vargas indicam que o pior já ficou para trás. Isso porque o índice de confiança manteve o crescimento do ano passado, apesar de o panorama geral ainda ser negativo.

Com a redução da taxa de juros e inflação comportada, recupera-se confiança dos investidores, aquecendo a indústria e o setor imobiliário como um todo. Isso tudo à medida que recupera crédito e gera empregos.

Segundo dados da Câmara Brasileira da Indústria da Construção (CBIC), o crescimento do segmento para este ano ficará em torno de 2%. Isso dependerá do investimento em infraestrutura e uma estruturação do governo que permita restabelecimento de crédito e a derrubada de barreiras que impedem financiamentos. Além da desburocratização no setor privado, financiamentos públicos via Caixa Econômica e BNDES são essenciais para manter o mercado aquecido.

Outra condição é de que a Caixa Econômica Federal seja capaz de sustentar seu programa de liberação de crédito, uma vez que é responsável por 70% dos financiamentos do segmento.

Outro sinal que indica melhora é o número de imóveis comercializados. Segundo o Sindicato das Empresas de Comércio e Serviços Imobiliários de São Paulo (SECOVI-SP), entre os meses de janeiro e novembro de 2017, foram comercializados 18.660 imóveis, um aumento de 32,8% em relação ao mesmo período de 2016.

Apesar do índice de distrato se manter elevado, a perspectiva é ótima para incorporadoras, pois implica a criação de novos empreendimentos. Visto que a recuperação na construção civil sinaliza avanço em todos os demais setores econômicos, a indústria dos demais segmentos deve ser alavancada como reflexo desses empreendimentos.

O otimismo também se mantém quando se trata de geração de empregos. Em um segmento que se manteve em retração de mão de obra, as previsões para 2018 em diante são animadoras. Até 2022, segundo o governo, devem ser criados mais 1,22 milhão de empregos apenas em obras públicas.

Em contexto, a greve dos caminhoneiros foi responsável por um rombo de quase 3 bilhões segundo a Câmara Brasileira Indústria da Construção (CBIC). Segundo a organização, o setor deixa de transportar trabalhadores e insumos e, portanto, adia a entrega de empreendimentos. Estima-se que a indústria volte à normalidade após duas ou três semanas de recuperação. Ou seja, as previsões de crescimento estipuladas à construção civil continuam as mesmas.

A maior perspectiva é de uma melhora lenta, mas contínua, mas por se tratar de um ano de eleição, quaisquer previsões dependem de um dos cenários que se desdobrarão em outubro. Esperamos que o mercado reaja positivamente, apesar da desconfiança interna e da crise política pela qual passa o Brasil.

Nesse contexto de recuperação após instabilidade econômica, é imprescindível manter os processos internos empresariais organizados. Ferramentas de gestão, como o Koper, ajudam a controlar gastos desnecessários, diminuir a taxa de erros e o tempo necessário para realização de tarefas. Garantindo um retorno quase imediato comparado ao baixo investimento, muitas empresas já adotaram essa metodologia para aumentar sua competitividade e marcar seu território dentro do mercado.

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    Informação valiosa. Para minha alegria que localizei o seu website por acaso, e estou muito alegre com o que eu achei aqui. Até mais abraço.

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